The recent studies based on geodesy and seismicity reveal number of evidences that the interseismic strain accumulation along the North Anatolian beneath the Marmara Sea is heterogeneous. One critical question is how the background seismicity relates to the strain accumulation and whether seismicity maps can be used to infer seismic gaps. The 2014, Mw6.9 Gökçeada-Samothraki earthquake provides an opportunity to compare co-seismic slip with the seismicity during the interseismic period and the post-seismic period. The comparison shows that the seismicity during the interseismic period surrounds the coseismic slip showing that asperities persist during the seismic cycle and locked regions do not generate significant amount of seismicity.

This creates an opportunity to use the seismicity as a proxy for interseismic behavior on the Main Marmara Fault. On that regard, we built a finite-element model of the Marmara region considering the 3D nature of the faults and structure. Using the geodetic data and constraints from seismicity, we infer that there is a possible zone of partial creep along the Tekirdag Basin while Ganos segment is fully locked. On the other hand, with the current datasets it is more challenging to constrain the strain accumulation along Eastern Marmara. Finally, we performed spontaneous dynamic rupture scenarios based on the historical earthquakes and strain accumulation after the last event using previous calculations of slip rates and interseismic locking.